The initial effect of the virus spreading locally, as has been the case in bavaria, baden-wurttemberg and north rhine-westphalia, will become increasingly blurred, said the charite scientist on the NDR podcast on thursday.
It can already be seen that the "local clustering" is slowly dissolving. "The virus will now continue to spread throughout germany over the next few weeks and months, over the summer." to this more equal distribution comes despite the mabnahmen to social distancing, because there are still ubertragungen.
One of the lessons of the spanish flu is that you have to account for changes in the background of the epidemic: at the time, some u.S. Cities didn’t notice it at first, drosten says. Over the summer there was an unnoticed, more even spread and then in the winter there were chains of infection in all places.
Positive surprises are also possible, said drosten. There are still many remaining questions, for example about the role of children in sars-cov-2. Also, relatively few people seem to be infected in households, as new data from china suggests. Maybe there is a hitherto unnoticed background immunity due to cold coronaviruses. Such aspects must be made clear to researchers.